Is the Iran war over?

6% Odds that the Israeli-American war in Iran ends by July 31, according to Polymarket. 27% Americans who support Israel's and Trump's military action in Iran, according to Reuters. 7% Americans who support sending troops into a large-scale ground with Iran, according to Reuters. 66% Americans who want a quick end to the Iran war even if U.S. goals aren't achieved, according to Reuters. 14% Odds that the U.S. will invade Iran before the end of 2026, according to Polymarket. 38% Americans who think using military force in Iran was the right decision, according to Pew Research Center.

Israel, America, and Iran are still at war, the Strait of Hormuz remains under U.S. blockade, and most Americans do not support the war. All the stats above track two important, independent signals on the war’s progression: public opinion and prediction markets. More than two thirds of Americans want a quick end to the war. Less than 10% of Americans support sending U.S. troops into Iran. Odds of a U.S. invasion this year sit at 14%, according to Polymarket. It’s day 122 of the Iran war, and most Americans want it to end.