Is the Iran war over?

6% Odds that the Israeli-American war in Iran ends by July 31, according to Polymarket. 27% Americans who support Israel's and Trump's military action in Iran, according to Reuters. 7% Americans who support sending troops into a large-scale ground with Iran, according to Reuters.
66% Americans who want a quick end to the Iran war even if U.S. goals aren't achieved, according to Reuters. 14% Odds that the U.S. will invade Iran before the end of 2026, according to Polymarket. 38% Americans who think using military force in Iran was the right decision, according to Pew Research Center.

Israel, America, and Iran are still at war, the Strait of Hormuz remains under U.S. blockade, and most Americans do not support the war. All the stats above track two important, independent signals on the war’s progression: public opinion and prediction markets. More than two thirds of Americans want a quick end to the war. Less than 10% of Americans support sending U.S. troops into Iran. Odds of a U.S. invasion this year sit at 14%, according to Polymarket. It’s day 122 of the Iran war, and most Americans want it to end.

What did Trump say?

110 days ago, Trump said the war is “won.” 8 days later, he said the war “will be over soon.” On day two of the war, Trump said it could last “four weeks or so.” It is now day 122, and Trump has said the war is over or nearly over more times than days the war was supposed to last. 113 days ago, Trump said he won’t unilaterally decide when the war is over — it will be a mutual decision with Israel. But 54 days later Trump told Congress the war is over. Trump also calls the war “very popular” even though only 27% of Americans support the ongoing conflict, according to Reuters. Throughout all of these conflicting statements, one pattern is consistent: Trump makes a statement and Iran immediately disputes it, and vice versa.

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Is the Strait of Hormuz open?

Ships Traffic and Positions Tracker • Strait of Hormuz
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Hundreds of ships are still stuck in the Strait of Hormuz on day 122 of the war as the U.S. blockade continues. In the map above, naval traffic labeled by ship type and country of origin are clustered within the blockaded zone. 58 days ago, Trump said the U.S. blockade is “friendly” and 27 days before that, Trump told Iran to “open the fuckin’ Strait.” Iran claims to have helped dozens of ships pass through the U.S. blockade, and 35 days ago, Iran said it will charge vessels its “navigation services.” Roughly 20% of global seaborne oil flows through this strait.

When will gas prices go down?

WTI Crude Oil (CL) • Hyperliquid
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Global oil markets were thrown into chaos when the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran started. Shown in the chart above, WTI crude oil has moved tracked sharply higher and spent most of the past few months trading above $100. Trump said higher oil and gas prices are “peanuts” compared to losing the war with Iran. Real-time market data on crude oil prices from the start of the war for the past 122 days is shown in the chart above.

Will Trump deploy troops to Iran?

Will the U.S. invade Iran? • Polymarket
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Can bombs alone end the Iran war? Or will Trump put American boots on the ground? That question is a persistent theme in statements from politicians and outcomes on prediction markets. Since the first strikes on Iran 121 days ago, the U.S. and Israel have continued bombarding various parts of Iran and nearby territories. 110 days ago, Trump said the war is “won” but shown in the chart above, there’s still a 14% chance the U.S. invades Iran this year, according to Polymarket.

Where did the U.S. strike Iran?

U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran (2026) • Wikipedia
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Strikes by the U.S. and Israel in Iran total 13 since the war began 121 days ago. Targets for U.S. strikes in Iran shown on the map above include nuclear sites, weapons facilities, oil terminals, and ports in the Persian Gulf. Even though Trump said the war was “won” 110 days ago, he also said Iran might need “another big hit” 69 days later. Iran said 37 days ago that if Trump “acts foolishly” and “war resumes,” Iran’s response will be “crushing and bitter.”

How much does the Iran war cost?

Since Israel's war [1, 2, 3] with Iran started 122 days ago, the U.S. has spent roughly $1 billion per day on its military operations, according to the Pentagon. But the actual costs of the war is a topic of debate. Showing below is a running estimated total. For unknown reasons, the cost ticker's source website was manually paused.
$116,076,634,473
Source: The Pentagon's briefing to Congress
Israel's war with Iran has cost American consumers tens of billions in higher fuel prices over the past 122 days. Show below is a real-time cost estimate tracker created by Brown University. This ticker tracks the fuel costs foisted on U.S. consumers due to oil market pricing turmoil as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran continues.
$0
Source: The Watson School of International and Public Affairs

This site exists because the public deserves real-time curation and transparency about the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, including what the U.S. President says, the Straight of Hormuz’s status, live market data on oil prices, plans for American troop deployments in Iran, live predictions for war-related events, the cost of military operations in Iran, and more. This site is maintained by Cozy Code.