TRACKING NEWS, DATA, AND PREDICTIONS FOR THE U.S.-ISRAEL WAR WITH IRAN

Iran’s IRGC said any attack on Iranian oil tankers would be met with a “heavy assault” on American bases. Iran said its new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei is now in good health. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that “numerous actions in violating the ceasefire have added to suspicions about the motivation and seriousness” of U.S. negotiations. New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Barron's

Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said the U.S. chose “a reckless military adventure” and Iran will “never bow to pressure.” Iran’s U.N. ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani accused the U.S. of violating the ceasefire by firing on two Iranian tankers. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Iran’s response to the U.S. is “under review.” Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reportedly has the final word on whether or not Iran submits to a peace agreement. Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, New York Post

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said he had “strongly rejected” U.S. proposals and their negotiations require “good faith” and “a genuine attempt to engage in discussions.” Iran said through its state media that the U.S. strikes violated the ceasefire. CNBC, Associated Press, Politico

Iran said “the only viable solution” is a “permanent end to the war.” According to a spokesman for Iran’s parliament, the latest U.S. proposal is “more a list of American wishes than a reality.” IRGC’s navy said that U.S. threats in the strait have been “neutralized” and Iran has “new protocols” for “safe, stable passage.” New York Times, Associated Press, Wall Street Journal

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused the U.S. of a ceasefire violation and said a “new equation” is “taking shape” in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB said Iranian control over the strait has “intensified.” Iran published a map showing that the UAE’s port of Fujairah is now within its “zone of control.” Iran announced a new entity to “formalize” traffic through the Strait of Hormuz called the “Persian Gulf Strait Authority.” New York Times, Bloomberg, Associated Press, Wall Street Journal

Iran’s Maj. Gen. Ali Abdollahi said that “any foreign military force” that tries to enter the Strait of Hormuz “will be targeted.” Iran’s semiofficial Fars News Agency claimed an unidentified U.S. ship was hit by two missiles after ignoring orders to halt. Iran’s Fars News Agency said the ship “was unable to continue its route due to these hits and was forced to retreat and flee the area.” New York Post, Associated Press, CNBC

Iran’s deputy parliament speaker Ali Nikzad said the Strait of Hormuz “will not return to its prewar conditions.” Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said that “the ball is in the United States’ court.” Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said they have received the U.S. response to their proposal and are reviewing it. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said there was no military solution to the crisis and said that Trump’s Project Freedom “is Project Deadlock.” Associated Press, Politico, Bloomberg, Reuters

Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said their military remains “fully vigilant.” Iran said U.S. actions and statements are “largely media-oriented” to escape “the predicament they have created for themselves.” IRGC officer Mohammad Jafar Asadi said military conflict between Iran and the U.S. is “likely” to restart and Trump might be “better off” without a deal. Bloomberg, Politico, New York Post

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said, “Good luck blockading a country with those borders.” Senior officials of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said any new U.S. attacks would bring “long and painful strikes.” Bloomberg, New York Post

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said he considered the U.S. blockade to be an “extension of military operations.” Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said the only place for “foreigners who come from thousands of kilometers away to act with greed and malice” toward Iran is “at the bottom of its waters.” Bloomberg, New York Post

Iran’s state-run network said “patience has limits” and “a punishing response is necessary.” Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the U.S. is trying “to weaken or even collapse us from within.” Iran warned of “unprecedented military action” against the U.S. blockade. CBS, Al Jazeera, Reuters

Iran’s IRGC-affiliated Fars news agency quoted an army spokesperson saying this “is still a war situation.” Iran’s mission to the U.N. said Iran has the “legitimate and legal right” to take “proportionate measures” to address security threats. Wall Street Journal, Al Jazeera

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the U.S. has “achieved none of their goals” in the war. Iran offered to open the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. lifts its blockade. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said sanctions on Iran “were designed to trample the basic rights of ordinary Iranians.” Iran’s ambassador to the U.N. Reza Najafi said U.S. is obstructing progress toward a Middle East that is free of nuclear weapons by supporting Israel. New York Times, Bloomberg, Associated Press, ABC

Iran through Pakistani mediators gave the U.S. a new proposal on reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the ending of the war. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said he won’t enter “imposed negotiations under threats or blockade.” Reuters, Bloomberg

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said they “have yet to see if the U.S. is truly serious about diplomacy.” Iran’s military said that continued “blockading, banditry and piracy” by the U.S. would lead to retaliation. Wall Street Journal, Guardian

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Esmael Baqaei said, “No meeting is planned to take place between Iran and the U.S.” According to a senior Iranian official, Iranian fighters are hiding in sea caves in the strait to “devastate the aggressors.” Associated Press, New York Times

Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said, “Iranians are all united, more than ever before.” Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said, “We are all Iranians and revolutionaries and will make the criminal aggressors regret their actions with national and governmental unity in total compliance with the Supreme leader.” Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said Iran has acted “entirely” lawfully in the Strait of Hormuz. New York Times, X (formerly Twitter), NBC

A senior Iranian advisor said the U.S. blockade is “no different than bombing.” Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran “has welcomed dialogue and agreement and continues to do so.” Iran’s foreign minister Seyed said Iran will “safeguard its security and national interests against threats and aggression.” Parliamentary spokesman Ebrahim Rezaei said Iran would respond with “an eye for an eye, an oil tanker for an oil tanker.” X (formerly Twitter), New York Times, Wall Street Journal

Iran seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said, “Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is impossible with such flagrant breach of the ceasefire.” Mahdi Mohammadi, an advisor to Iran’s speaker of parliament, said “Trump’s ceasefire extension is certainly a ploy to buy time for a surprise strike.” Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said that “blockading Iranian ports is an act of war and thus a violation of the ceasefire.” Reuters, Bloomberg, Associated Press

Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said that Iran would not “accept negotiations under the shadow of threats.” Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei refused to confirm if Iran would take part in a second round of peace talks. Bloomberg, New York Times

Iran said it “will soon respond and retaliate against this armed piracy by the U.S. military.” Iran said the U.S. blockade is a “war crime and crime against humanity.” Iran’s state news agency IRNA said, “Under these conditions, the outlook for constructive talks remains bleak.” New York Times, Reuters, CNBC

Iran said it is reclosing the Strait of Hormuz until the U.S. blockade is lifted. Iran’s Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) said, “Iran agreed to allow a limited number of ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz according to agreements.” Iran’s Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said mine-clearing is considered a violation of the ceasefire. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said, “Enriched uranium is as sacred to us as Iran’s soil, and it won’t be transferred anywhere under any circumstances.” Iran’s military warned that it would “destroy” vessels attempting to cross the strait. New York Times, CNBC, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal

Iran said the Strait of Hormuz is now open to commercial traffic. Iran’s foreign minister said “passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open” via a designated route through the vital shipping lane. Iran threatened “necessary measures” if the U.S. blockade is not lifted. Bloomberg, CBS, NBC

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei criticized economic threats by the U.S. as an “inhumane mindset.” Baghaei said the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire was part of the Iran-U.S. agreement brokered by Pakistan. Hezbollah said “any ceasefire must be comprehensive across all Lebanese territory and must not allow the Israeli enemy any freedom of movement.” A senior Iranian official said Iran wants the U.S. to unfreeze some Iranian funds in return for allowing more ships through the strait. Associated Press, New York Times, Reuters

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said his country “based on its needs, must be able to continue enrichment.” Iran’s foreign ministry said there is a “high chance” Iran would host a delegation of Pakistani mediators. Iran’s Maj. Gen. Ali Abdollahi said Iran will consider the blockade “a prelude to violating the cease-fire” if it “creates insecurity” for Iranian vessels. Iran has demanded compensation for the destruction caused by the U.S. and Israel’s attacks. Associated Press, Al Jazeera, New York Times

Iran said any U.S. move to block the strait would be “an act of piracy.” Iran said talks with the U.S. could resume “later this week or earlier next week” but “nothing is finalised as of now.” Bloomberg, CNBC

Ebrahim Rezaei, a spokesperson for the Iranian parliament’s National Security Commission, said the U.S. blockade is “more bluffing than reality.” Iranian vice president Mohammad Reza Aref said, “Iran seeks nothing beyond its legal rights and the defense of its national security against any encroachment and state terrorism.” Associated Press, New York Times

Iran said it has no plans for a “next round of negotiations,” but a foreign ministry spokesman said diplomacy will continue. Mohsen Rezaei, a senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, said that Iran had “large, untouched levers” to counter a blockade and Iran would not be pressured “with tweets and imaginary plans.” Wall Street Journal, New York Times

An Iranian state television broadcast said that the U.S. is “demanding too much.” Iran’s Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said, “If you fight, we will fight, and if you come forward with logic, we will deal with logic.” New York Times, Reuters

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said Iran has “absolutely not carried out any launches toward any country during the ceasefire hours” and any media reports claiming otherwise are “undoubtedly the work of the Zionist enemy (Israel) or the United States.” Iran’s state media said the military will “maintain the initiative to dominate that strait and will not give up our legitimate rights in any way.” Iran is unable to open the Strait of Hormuz because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid. CBS, New York Times, New York Times

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said Israeli strikes on Lebanon violated the ceasefire agreement and made negotiations “meaningless.” Iran reasserted that it is not at war with other countries in the region. Iran’s deputy foreign minister Saeed Khatibzadeh said “we hope that we can meet soon in Pakistan” with the U.S. and that the U.S. could “control its ally” and “honor their words.” Reuters, New York Times

Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said “repeated violations of all forms of commitments” from the U.S. “has regrettably been repeated once again.” Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps aerospace commander Majid Mousavi said Iran is preparing a “heavy” and “regret-inducing” response to Israel’s attack on Lebanon. Iran is allowing transit fees for oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz to be paid in cryptocurrency. Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times, CNBC

Iran’s state television said Trump is “accepting Iran’s conditions to end the war.” Iran cut off direct communications with the U.S. today. Iran said it is “ready both for peace and for war.” Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps said it will launch attacks beyond the region if the U.S. targets its civilian facilities. Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, New York Times

Iran said that negotiations were “incompatible with ultimatums and threats to commit war crimes.” Iran’s deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Trump “has publicly threatened to commit war crimes.” Iran spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said “we have formulated our own responses” to Trump’s demands. Iranian military spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaghari said the U.S. operation to rescue a F-15E pilot was “planned as a deception and escape mission at an abandoned airport in southern Isfahan.” New York Times, Reuters, Guardian, New York Post

Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said that “the only real solution is respecting the rights of the Iranian people and ending this dangerous game.” Iran’s embassy in Lebanon posted a meme on social media that said, “We aren’t reopening shit bro.” New York Times, X (formerly Twitter)

Iranian military spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaghari said Iraq is exempt from any restrictions on transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and “these restrictions only apply to enemy countries.” Zolfaghari said Iran is rolling out new, domestically-produced air defense systems to attack American aircraft. Reuters, CBS, Wall Street Journal

Iran officially told the mediators it isn’t willing to meet with the U.S. and that U.S. demands are unacceptable. Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said “bring it on” in response to Trump’s threats. Wall Street Journal, NBC

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said striking civilian structures “will not compel Iranians to surrender” and it “only conveys the defeat and moral collapse of an enemy in disarray.” An Iranian armed forces spokesman said the Strait of Hormuz will remain shut for the U.S. and Israel over the long term. Bloomberg, BBC

Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Trump’s claim that Iran had requested a ceasefire is “false and baseless.” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote a letter to Americans, which said, “Throughout its millennia of proud history, Iran has outlasted many aggressors. All that remains of them are tarnished names in history, while Iran endures—resilient, dignified, and proud.” Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said 18 tech companies would be considered as “legitimate targets” in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, including Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft and Google. Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen said they fired ballistic missiles at “sensitive” targets in Israel. New York Times, Bloomberg, CNBC, NBC

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country has “the necessary will to end this war,” but he wants “essential guarantees to prevent the recurrence of [...] hostile and aggressive actions” by the U.S. and Israel. Bloomberg

Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf denied having discussions with the U.S. Iran described U.S. proposals to the war as “unrealistic, illogical and excessive.” Despite being declared a persona non grata and told to leave, the Iranian ambassador “will continue his work as ambassador in Beirut and is still present there,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said. Associated Press, Reuters, Guardian

Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf said the U.S. is “unaware that our men are waiting for American soldiers to enter on the ground so they can set them ablaze and punish their regional partners forever.” NBC

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Israel’s ongoing attacks “contradicts POTUS extended deadline for diplomacy” and Iran will “exact [a] heavy price for Israeli crimes.” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that trust is needed to facilitate talks and mediation on Israel’s ongoing war. CNBC, Reuters

Iran is trying to set up a tolling system for the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran said that ships from “hostile” countries wouldn’t be allowed through. Iran believes there’s a high likelihood Trump will try to take Kharg Island. Bloomberg

Trump told an associate that the Iran war is distracting from his other priorities. Iran said the U.S. proposal for ending the war is “one-sided and unfair.” Wall Street Journal, Reuters

Iran rejected an American proposal to end the war, and a senior Iranian official said their initial response to the U.S. proposal to end the war has not been “positive.” “Iran does not accept a ceasefire,” according to Iran’s state news agency FARS. Iran’s military spokesman responded to Trump’s statements that Iran has been negotiating with the U.S. by saying, “Someone like us will never get along with someone like you. Not now, not ever.” Iran said it would not allow Trump “to dictate the timing of the war’s end.” Reuters, CNBC, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, New York Times

Iran is "willing to listen" but is not asking for direct talks with the U.S., and Iran's military said it will fight until "complete victory." Iran is worried negotiations may be a trap to kill Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf who said Iran is "aware of what is happening in the paper oil market, including the firms hired to influence oil futures." CNN, X (formerly Twitter), Wall Street Journal, Associated Press

Iran's Foreign Ministry denied that any negotiations have taken place with the U.S. and said "we are not the party that started this war." Iran said it would mine the "entire Persian Gulf" if attacks continued. Reuters, CBS, Associated Press

Iran said it would close the Strait of Hormuz "completely" if the U.S. attacks its power facilities. Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran's parliament, said financial entities that buy U.S. Treasury bonds are "legitimate targets." Bloomberg

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran "will exercise its right to self-defense." Bloomberg

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said Iran is "building a nationwide defensive front". Iranian military spokesman Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi said "based on the information we have about you, even parks, recreational areas, and tourist destinations anywhere in the world will no longer be safe" for Iran's enemies. Associated Press, New York Post

Iran said it is considering levying transit fees on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi said, "I do not know why the Americans and the Israelis still have not understood this point: The Islamic Republic of Iran has a strong political structure with established political, economic, and social institutions." Reuters, Al Jazeera

Iran is moving its own crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz at pre-war levels. Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei said "Every drop of spilled blood comes at a price, and the criminal murderers of these martyrs will soon have to pay it." Bloomberg, Guardian

Iranian army chief Amir Hatami said, "At the appropriate time and place, a decisive, deterrent, and regretful response will be given to the criminal America and the bloodthirsty Zionist regime." Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei rejected proposals for "reducing tensions or ceasefire with the United States," according to a senior Iranian official. Reuters, BBC

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that "we don't see any reason why we should talk with Americans" and Iran is ready to take the war "as far as necessary." CBS, Al Jazeera

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Islamic Republic hasn't asked for talks or a ceasefire. Bloomberg

Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Russia and China "are our strategy partners" and their cooperation "still continues," which "includes military cooperation." New York Post

Shi'ite Muslim armed groups in Lebanon and Iraq are helping Iran intensify the war around the region. Reuters

Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said he will keep the Strait of Hormuz shut as leverage and signaled he won't back down in the ongoing war. Reuters, Bloomberg

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that "the only way to end the war that began with the warmongering of the Zionist regime and America is the acceptance of Iran's indisputable rights, payment of reparations, and a firm international obligation to prevent their aggression from recurring." CNBC

Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said, "I don't think talking with the Americans would be on our agenda anymore." Barron's

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said they "are the ones who will determine the end of the war." Axios

Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran has no intention of surrendering and his country is prepared to continue fighting to defend "ourselves [...] our territory [...] our people, and our dignity." NBC, Politico

Iran's top security official Ali Larijani said the United States "must pay the price" for killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He said, "Americans must know that we will not let them go." Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Trump's call for unconditional surrender is "a dream that they should take to their grave." New York Times, Los Angeles Times, Washington Post

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said, "I should apologize to the neighboring countries that were attacked by Iran, on my own behalf." Iran's Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi said Tehran has "not hit countries that did not provide space for America to invade our country." NPR

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran has not asked for a ceasefire and they "are confident that we can confront them" regarding a U.S. ground invasion. NBC

Iran's top security official Ali Larijani denied reports that Iran wants to negotiate. He said, "Iran, unlike the United States, has prepared itself for a long war." New York Times

Iran's security chief Ali Larijani said, "We will not negotiate with the United States." Spokesman for Iran's Foreign Ministry said they have "no other choice" than to fight. Wall Street Journal, NPR

Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said changing the Iranian regime is "mission impossible." "You cannot do regime change while millions of people are supporting the so-called regime," Araghchi said. NBC